US retail sales rise unexpectedly despite blizzards
The storied American consumer braved blizzards and economic headwinds to shop in February, unexpectedly pushing up retail sales for the second straight month, official data showed Friday.
The Commerce Department said that retail and food service sales rose 0.3 percent from January to 355.5 billion dollars, while most analysts expected they would fall 0.2 percent amid fierce winter storms that hammered large areas of the country.
The surprise strength in retail sales sparked hopes the economy is finally gaining traction in what has been so far a government-fueled recovery from the worst recession since the Great Depression.
"Even with some terrifically blustery storms, consumers managed to spend money in February," said Robert Brusca at FAO Economics.
"You can bet against the sun coming up or the full moon cycle turning a guy into a vampire, but never ever bet against the US consumer. He is on his way back and... will lift the recovery to higher ground."
The February advance in retail sales was broad-based, with shoppers snapping up a range of goods from clothing, furniture to electronics and appliances.
Only two of the 12 sectors measured declined.
Automobile sales tumbled 2.0 percent, the steepest skid since September 2009, in part reflecting the impact of Japanese automaker Toyota's massive recalls.
Health and personal care sales dropped 0.7 percent, the biggest fall since February 2004.
"Surprisingly, given the bad weather, the non-store retailers' category -- which includes Internet shopping -- didn't share in the gains. Non-store sales were flat," said Nigel Gault, chief US economist at IHS Global Insight.
Excluding auto and gasoline sales, which can be volatile from month to month, retail sales accelerated to a 0.9 percent gain after rising 0.5 percent in January.
Gault said the data signals real consumer spending will rise about 3.0 percent in the January-March period, noting that would be the fastest increase in three years.
"The figures suggest that consumers are feeling more confident in the outlook, and they contradict the signal from the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, which fell sharply in February," he said.
Jennifer Lee at BMO Capital Markets agreed with Gault's estimate.
"The bottom line: consumer spending is looking very encouraging so far in the first quarter," she said.
The monthly retail sales report is a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of US output.
Retail sales were 3.9 percent higher than in February 2009, when the government passed a nearly 800-billion-dollar stimulus package in a bid to pull the world's largest economy out of the worst recession in decades.
Economists say consumer spending will be vital to a sustainable recovery as the government exits extraordinary stimulus measures.
President Barack Obama's administration and the Federal Reserve have predicted consumer spending would remain weak in 2010 and, unlike in past recoveries, would not be the main driver of economic growth.
The unemployment rate, hovering near double-digit levels, is expected to remain high even as the economy strengthens in what some say will be a "jobless recovery."
The economy expanded at a powerful 5.9 percent pace in the 2009 fourth quarter after 2.2 percent growth in the third quarter as the world's largest economy shook off a full year of contraction.
Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics cautioned that the January retail sales rise was small after the Commerce Department revised the gain to 0.1 percent from 0.5 percent.
"The continued weakness in consumer sentiment suggests little scope for a sustained acceleration," Shepherdson said.

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